BID3 Publications
The BID3 model has been used extensively by both our clients and by AFRY to carry out a wide range of studies investigating the future of the energy system.
Have a browse of the publications below to find out what is possible with the most powerful energy market model!
Client studies
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German grid development plan: Netzentwicklungsplan (NEP)
The long-term planning of German electricity network is carried out with BID3 performing a key role to carry out the market simulations
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Statnett: Long-term Market Analysis 2020-2050
Statnett prepares a Long-Term Market Analysis (LMA) every two years. The analysis is compiled to keep track of and analyze the long-term development in the power market, among other things. One of the main models used is BID3 which is combined with the Samnett model to do the required simulations
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National Grid: Network Options Assessment (NOA)
The Network Options Assessment (NOA) is National Grid's recommendation for which electricity network reinforcement projects should receive investment. BID3 is used at the heart of the process to help assess the cost and benefits of the projects
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VNK study: Finnish decarbonisation scenarios
This study was carried out using the BID3 model to examine how a future zero carbon 2035 scenario may look like for Finland
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Prosess21: Power market expert group report
This study, carried out using the BID3 model, examines how new technologies, increasing consumption and chnages in production may shape the Nordic power market, and the impact on industry
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Energinet: Security of Electricity Supply Report
Energinet uses the BID3 model as part of their annual report on security of electricity supply
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Entso-e: Mid-term Adequacy Forecast
Pan-European monitoring assessment of power system resource adequacy spanning a timeframe from one to ten years ahead. It is based upon a state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis using BID3
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Statnett: Nordic Grid development plan
The four Nordic TSOs (Statnett, Fingrid, Energinet, Svenska Krafnat) use the BID3 model to assist in developing their long-term plans for grid expansion in the Nordics
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National Grid: EMR Electricity Capacity Report
This report contains results from work undertaken by National Grid for BEIS in order to support the development of Capacity Market secured volumes. BID3 was used to provide pan-European assessments
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National Grid: Long-term Market and Network Constraint Modelling
This report provides information on how National Grid, in its role as System Operator (SO), undertakes its long-term electricity market and network constraint modelling. In 2016 the SO transitioned from using a tool developed in-house, named ELSI (Electricity Scenario Illustrator), to a model procured externally, for developing long-term constraint forecasts of the network, which informs continuing investment decisions. This new model is called BID3.
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UKPN: Network impacts of supply-following Demand Response
This report examines the relative values of benefits that will motivate different buyers of Demand Side Response services and how the differences in DSR programmes will impact the distribution network. BID3 was used to simulate the wholesale market and reserve holding issues
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AFRY studies
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Long-term capacity adequacy assessment – National Grid ESO study
For this ground-breaking work for the British TSO, BID3's Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) module was used to understand how the reliability of the GB electricity system will change in the future.
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Benefits of long duration storage - BEIS study
In this seminal study for the UK government, we used BID3 to investigate the role and requirements for long-duration electricity storage and associated system impacts.
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Are record GB balancing system costs here to stay?
In this article, John Perkins uses the BID3 model to investigate how balancing costs in the GB market may evolve over time
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Power forward curve modelling and the impact of covid-19
In this presentation, we looked at how BID3 could be used to simulate the forward curve using the BID3 Short Term module, running the model every night automatically. We then investigated how covid-19 had altered market dynamics
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Roadmap to zero-carbon EU energy sector
This 2020 report prepared jointly by AFRY and Iberdrola aims to identify the keys to a successful and efficient decarbonisation of the energy sector by 2050 in Europe, with a focus on Great Britain and Spain – the energy sector being in this study power generation, heat, and road and rail transport. In April 2021, this report is complemented by an update study focusing on the final energy costs and the investments corresponding to this pathway in Spain.
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Role of gas in Portuguese zero carbon energy sector
This report, based on modelling using BID3, concludes that the decarbonisation of the Portuguese energy system by 2050 is possible and should be done by using a “zero carbon gas” pathway. Using gas infrastructure would save the Portuguese economy over €9bn compared with taking an “all-electric” pathway.
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Poyry Management Consulting (now AFRY) studies
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Cheaper and greener: How renewable energy will deliver low-cost power to Irish homes and businesses
Wind and solar power have never offered better value to consumers. In recent years, costs have fallen significantly, driven by (amongst other factors): efficiencies in the supply chain and technological improvements. In this report, we use BID3 to investigate how increasing investment in renewables in Ireland can lead to benefits for consumers
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Norwegian Petroleum and Energy Ministry: Market prices and framework conditions for market players Northern Europe
End-user prices and future developments in the power market were assessed by AFRY (formerly Pöyry Management Consulting) using the BID3 model
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Tipping Points: How falling technology costs and retail tariffs will shape the electricity system
Pöyry has carried out a major multi-client study to investigate how the rapidly falling costs of renewables and batteries could transform the power sector. This study involved radical developments to BID3 to optimise both the wholesale and retail markets as a bi-level optimisation
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The value of within-day flexibility in the GB electricity market
This major multi-client study used BID3 to investigate how within-day flexibility may increase in the future given rising renewables, and which technologies are set to benefit most
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Fully decarbonising Europe’s energy system by 2050
Using the BID3 Auto Build module, this study investigates the key question: “How can a fully decarbonised energy sector be achieved and what are the risks of precluding options in favour of certain technologies?”
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Backcasting the GB Balancing Mechanism with BID3
Backcasting, the comparison of modelled outputs to historical outturn values, is a wellestablished method of testing the performance of models. National Grid ESO and AFRY have worked together to undertake such an exercise with BID3, using the SO’s knowledge and understanding of the Balancing Mechanism and Pöyry’s expertise in BID3 modelling and backcasting.
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Near-term Interconnector Cost-Benefit Analysis for Ofgem
Poyry Management Consulting was commissioned by Ofgem to provide the cost-benefit analysis for interconnectors applying for the regime in the second window, using modelling work based on BID3
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