Statnett: Long-term Market Analysis (LMA) 2024-2050
The Norwegian Transmission System Operator’s (Statnett) Long-Term Market Analysis (LMA) 2022-2050 highlights the future energy landscape’s key trends, challenges, and forecasts. Published biannually, the modelling uses BID3 in combination with system models to simulate the Nordic and the wider European energy systems
The modelling, with six scenarios for market and demand, discusses and quantifies transitions in the European market and how this interacts with developments in consumption, production and electricity prices in Norway. In addition to these fundamental outcomes, it also provides Statnett with input for further analyses of, grid demand, operational challenges and the socio-economic benefits of grid reinforcements further detailed in the upcoming 2025 System Development Plan
Developments in the power market up to 2050
In addition to describing projections for the Nordic and European markets, the report addresses renewable integration, electrification of industries, energy security post-crises, and Norway's role in Europe's energy transition. It includes projections for power prices, market dynamics, and uncertainties up to 2050, supporting Statnett's system planning and investment decisions.
The report highlights the following observed trends:
- Energy policy in Europe is shaped by an energy transition that factors in security, cost focus shape: with global technology costs and global transition affect developments in Europe
- Europe's electricity consumption will increase – but less than expected the first few years
- Significant growth in flexibility, however, those won’t be enough to absorb all renewable production
- High price variation combined with gradually lower and more uniform average prices across Europe. Electricity prices within Norway are likely to become more uniform but periods of tight capacity balance will lead to more high price peaks
The modelling recommends a significant need for planned grid developments in Norway from the forecast of high benefit from exchanges with other countries
>> Download executive summary [PDF] (English) - external link External link, opens in new window.
>> Download full publication [PDF] (Norwegian only) - external link External link, opens in new window.
>> Download executive summary [PDF] (English) - internal link pdf, 532.7 kB, opens in new window.
>> Download full publication [PDF] (Norwegian only) - internal link pdf, 3 MB, opens in new window.
