Statnett: Short/medium-term Market Analysis (KMA) 2024-2050
Statnett, the Norwegian TSO, annually prepares the Short-Term Market Analysis (KMA) to track medium-term developments in the power market. The latest KMA (2024–2029) quantifies the pace of European and Nordic power systems transition
The analysis serves as a critical tool for understanding the short-term to medium-term dynamics of the European and Nordic power markets, guiding Statnett's strategies for a robust and viable power system. Using BID3 for all zones combined with power-flow models in Nordics provide quantitative insights to drive decisions.
The outcome of the work has concluded some critical items and major differences from the 2023 analysis, such as:
- The reduction of surplus on the Norwegian power balance by the end of the decade
- Faster growth in solar power capacity addition
- Lower forecast growth in consumption
These two factors combined will yield substantially more hours of very low power prices. European power prices could fall to zero or lower for more than 30 percent of the time in 2029.
“The transition to a low-emission society will result in greater power consumption, both in Norway and Europe. The underlying driving forces for growth are strong. The great uncertainty lies in where, how fast and how high consumption will increase” says Executive Vice President for Power System and Market at Statnett Gunnar Løvås.” Significant price differences, more flow of electricity and the fact that we must take into account a possible high consumption growth in all scenarios means that planned grid reinforcements are necessary.”
