Sweden's grid operator Svenska kraftnät (SvK): Scenarios for the development of the power system until 2050
The Swedish Transmission System Operator (Svenska Kraftnät - SvK) presents its Long-Term Market Analysis (LMA) 2024-2050, a biannual report focused on key trends and challenges in Sweden's and the broader Nordic energy systems.
The analysis presents four key scenarios: Small-Scale Renewables (SF), Mixed Pathways (FM), Electrification with Planned Growth (EP), and Electrification with Renewable Energy (EF).
The scenarios in LMA 2024 have been fully simulated using BID3 electricity market model, chosen for its enhanced ability to model additional energy carriers, such as hydrogen, alongside the power system.
SvK projects annual production growth of 2–7.5 TWh from 2025 to 2045, driven by a significant shift towards renewable energy sources like wind and solar. This transition underscores the need for expanded grid capacity to accommodate fluctuating power flows and rising demand. Flexibility from resources such as electric vehicles and hydrogen production will be crucial to ensuring grid stability amidst the increasing variability of the power system.
The study emphasises that demand-side flexibility will be crucial for maintaining system adequacy by 2045 and supporting the global energy transition. Expanding both electricity generation and transmission infrastructure—particularly to connect SE1 with other price zones—is essential. The future power system, with its higher share of renewables, will require efficient grid solutions, strengthening cross-border connections, and flexible responses to evolving electricity market needs.
The findings in this analysis will guide Svenska Kraftnät’s proactive planning for the transmission network and its broader role in the Nordic energy system.
