National Grid ESO (NESO): Future Energy Scenarios
The Future Energy Scenarios 2022 by National Grid ESO outlines four different, credible pathways for the future of energy between 2022 and 2050. Each scenario considers the whole energy demand and the potential energy and generation sources. NESO used BID3 to model the four power and sector coupled scenarios
NESO’s goal of constructing these scenarios is to a build a picture of the different solutions required. The Future Energy Scenarios are not a single prediction of what the future of energy will be, but they are intended to form a credible range of possible outcomes based on a set of scenarios. These are:
- Falling short with slowest credible carbonisation
- System transformation: system with heavy use of hydrogen and consumer less include to change behaviour
- Consumer transformation with electrified heating, high efficiency and demand sided flexibility
- Leading the way with significant lifestyle changes and heating with mix of hydrogen and electrification
Key updates for FES in 2022 included a new data centre electricity demand, improved regional EV energy distribution using mileage data, and updated distributed generation data. These enhancements improved the accuracy of long-term energy system planning.
The modelling with BID3 encompasses the whole system with interconnection and examines interactions between power sector and co-products such as hydrogen and heat. It integrates Demand Side Response (DSR), Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) and different types/duration of storage (such LDES) to assess their role in managing peak demand and enhancing flexibility for high confidence projections.
In the forward to the report, Fintan Slye Executive Director, NESO, notes that “Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, research and modelling, each scenario considers how much energy we might need and where it could come from; how we maintain a system that is reliable” thus emphasizing the adequacy component of the future decarbonised system.
>> Link to NESO Future Energy Scenarios webpage - external link External link, opens in new window. -- Go to 2022 archive
