Net zero power and hydrogen - capacity requirements for flexibility
AFRY conducted a comprehensive analysis for the UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC) to assess the capacity requirements for flexibility in a net-zero power and hydrogen system. The study aims to establish indicators for monitoring progress toward decarbonising electricity supply by 2035 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
The analysis explores flexibility requirements for 2035 and 2050 to balance weather-dependent electricity production, with a focus on hydrogen integration. Using BID3 modelling, the study identifies key indicators for tracking progress, emphasising low-carbon solutions like dispatchable generation, hydrogen production, storage, and carbon capture.
The advanced modelling of BID3 was used to analyse a broad mix of flexibility solutions—such as demand-side response (DSR), grid storage, and low-carbon generation. These solutions will be essential to reduce reliance on gas and prioritise hydrogen and carbon capture technologies. Grid storage and DSR are expected to grow rapidly to handle short-term fluctuations.
The report highlights the need for substantial expansion of transmission networks, with the GB network’s capacity needing to double by 2035 and further adaptation by 2050. The growing role of renewable energy in GB’s energy exports may help address negative residual demand through interconnectors or green hydrogen. These insights will guide policymakers in shaping the necessary frameworks and investments to meet the UK’s climate targets, emphasising long-term planning and industry collaboration.
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