Assessing the value of a National Hydrogen Backbone in Great Britain

This AFRY study, delivered for NESO using BID3, explores the role of a national hydrogen pipeline network in supporting the UK's transition to a low-carbon energy system.

The analysis compares a future with a connected hydrogen backbone against a scenario without major hydrogen transmission infrastructure, assessing impacts on system costs, hydrogen production, emissions and energy security to 2060.

Link to NESO page: The role of low carbon gases in the energy system External link.

Key findings

Under Base case assumptions, the backbone lacks a strong economic case but delivers growing benefits under a more ambitious hydrogen future

The BID3 modelling shows that the hydrogen backbone delivers relatively limited direct commercial system cost savings under central assumptions. However, the network provides broader benefits by enabling more efficient hydrogen production, reducing renewable curtailment and supporting a more flexible low-carbon energy system.

Improved flexibility and reduced emissions

A connected hydrogen network allows renewable energy from resource-rich regions, particularly Scotland, to be converted into hydrogen and transported to demand centres across Great Britain. BID3 results indicate that this increases green hydrogen production, lowers gas consumption and delivers meaningful carbon reductions compared with a system without a backbone.

The backbone’s value pivots on non-power H2 demand: strong demand amplifies benefits, zero demand removes them

The study finds that the long-term case for a hydrogen backbone depends heavily on the growth and geographic spread of industrial hydrogen demand. As hydrogen adoption expands across multiple regions, the value of interconnecting supply and demand centres increases significantly. Conversely, lower hydrogen demand reduces the economic justification for large-scale transmission infrastructure.

Strategic infrastructure planning will be critical

Results suggest that some pipeline corridors, particularly those linking Scotland with northern England, deliver value across a wide range of scenarios. The analysis highlights the importance of coordinating hydrogen production, demand growth and infrastructure investment to ensure assets are efficiently utilised and system benefits are realised.

Other selected findings from the analysis include:

• The hydrogen backbone increases the share of low-carbon hydrogen production and reduces renewable curtailment across the system.
• More than 500 TWh of renewable curtailment is avoided compared with the counterfactual scenario.
• The backbone reduces long-term gas demand and delivers substantial carbon reduction benefits.
• The strongest value is observed in scenarios with higher and more geographically dispersed industrial hydrogen demand.