2012-2024 European backcast completed and dataset available!

As part of our data service to clients, the 2024 European backcast is now completed, with improvements in wind profiles, adjustments for embedded generation, and commentary on unusual price behaviour in Southeast Europe, France and Iberia.

Every year, we undertake an exercise to run a backcast (backtest) of the BID3 European dataset against historical market prices and generation. The objective is to test both the quality of the data and the accuracy of the BID3 algorithms: without cheating by over-fitting history! Ultimately the aim of the exercise is not to create a convincing backcast, but to improve the quality of the projections that BID3 can provide.

Starting with our pan-European genset database, we feed BID3 with key market data such as fuel and carbon prices, plant availabilities, wind speed and solar irradiation and hydro inflows. We run the model for all Europe and all years 2012-2024. And we try to improve the accuracy of the input data, spot errors and generally work hard to replicate what's been going on in the market.

BID3 datasets are available for our clients, and always are the best datasets that we use ourselves for our own work.

Take a look at the Data Service area External link. within the client Portal (login required)