In a net zero system, can we ensure that the ‘lights don’t go out’?

New BID3 study for National Grid ESO published: Long-term capacity adequacy assessment

In a future net-zero electricity system with much higher penetration of renewables and greater volumes of storage, how do we understand the potential risks to security of supply and whether there are sufficient available resources to meet demand? What mix of new technologies might deliver that adequacy?

The study demonstrates the capability of BID3 in evaluating the potential risks to security of supply (“adequacy”) and whether there are sufficient available resources to meet electricity demand throughout the year. By 2035, the GB system will have a capacity mix drastically different than that of today: much higher volumes of renewables, larger volumes of storage, as well as greater interconnection to surrounding countries. For this critical study for the British TSO, the BID3 Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) module was used extensively.

The BID3 market model was used to simulate the GB and NW Europe power system with multiple weather patterns and random outages. BID3's multi-country and sequential time series approach to LOLE evaluation captures the provision from all technologies including batteries, interconnectors and flexible demand, providing results for key adequacy metrics set for this study: LOLE (loss of load expectation) and critically tight hours. Alongside the LOLE module, the Dispatch module was run to determine the underlying reason for load loss. Four technology mixes providing system reliability were created by introducing a capacity shortfall in the reference scenario, then building back alternative technologies that also meet the LOLE standard.

Results show that new technologies can deliver both net-zero and system adequacy. However, critical stress events become longer in duration and more affected by weather patterns. To read the full methodology, complete analysis of results, please follow the link to the publication here External link, opens in new window..