Roadmap to zero-carbon EU energy sector
This 2020 report prepared jointly by AFRY and Iberdrola aims to identify the keys to a successful and efficient decarbonisation of the energy sector by 2050 in Europe, with a focus on Great Britain and Spain – the energy sector being in this study power generation, heat, and road and rail transport. In April 2021, this report is complemented by an update study focusing on the final energy costs and the investments corresponding to this pathway in Spain.
The main report concludes that the optimal pathway to a zero-carbon future needs fast and massive penetration of electric vehicles, that heat pumps will be key to decarbonise buildings and a mix of energies are needed to allow the efficient decarbonisation of industry. In the power sector, a generation mix largely dominated by renewables means flexibility must migrate towards demand-side, where EVs and heat pumps connected to smart grids will help demand balance the generation profile and avoid curtailments or load losses. Hydrogen will be a key complement to electrification, mainly produced with renewable electricity.
In the power sector modelling, we use our existing market model, BID3. This model already includes key characteristics such as:
- Plant parameters: Efficiencies/availability, risk of unexpected outages, time taken to ramp to full capacity, reduced efficiencies when ramping up and down more frequently.
- Historical weather patterns: Application of historical weather patterns with hourly wind speeds, solar irradiation and temperatures being applied to future years to ensure an internally consistent temperature variance outcome on demand alongside actual levels of generation from wind and solar.
- Security standards: Ensures that the power generation mix provides sufficient back-up for times when intermittent generation is very low and demand is very high.
For the purposes of this study we have used our further enhanced BID3 with two major features:
- Flexibility of demand: With the increase of smart meters and appliances, electric heating and electric vehicles, electricity demand is expected to become much more flexible. New flexible hourly demand profiles have been developed for end use of electricity for heat and transport, including variations from the temperature dependence of heat pump efficiencies and electric vehicle ranges.
- Hydrogen production: The mix between the different available technologies is optimised both in the long-term (investment decisions) and short-term (dispatch). Electrolysis competes with the flexibility offered by electric vehicles and heating
